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February 06
Edition

Pages in PDF

Regular
Features

› Son Of A Gun
  with Mick Pacholli

› Fab's Ravings

› Technology
  with Chris Jacobs

› Are You
  Puzzled?
  with
  Narelle Stegehuis

› Family Issues
  with
  Marilyn Brideson

› Planet Clare

› Lovatts
  Crossword

› Live Theatre
  with Blair Edgar

› Movie Scene
  with
  Charlie Alexander

› Entertainment
  with Gary Turner

› Grazing in the
  Suburbs
  with Mick Pacholli

› Fab's Travel

› Talking Manure
  with Mick Pacholli

› Furry Friends
  with
  Dr Graeme Smith

› Racing
  with Ted Ryan

› Rant & Rave
  with
  Paddles Hackett

› Bowls
  with Mick Pacholli

› Motoring
  with Garry Fabian

› Short Cuts
  Writers
  Competition

Is the Technology Revolution of the 1920s Happening Again?

- by Chris Jacobs       www.ctsbayside.com.au

A few of you may have been alive during The Great Depression or possibly heard stories from parents or grandparents about people’s daily struggle to live. You may have also heard of the phrase, ‘Roaring Twenties’, which refers to the time just preceding the Depression, where everybody was making money on the Stock Market, the economy was growing rapidly, the motor car was taking hold allowing cities to expand and new industries to be created.

Roaring Twenties

The United States, fast becoming the industrial superpower, has often had the decade described as the era of “bath tub gin [alcohol was prohibited in the US during the 20s], the model T, the $5 work day, the first transatlantic flight, and the movie.”

Why am I mentioning all this? Well according one of the world best known and successful economists, we are going through a similar period right now. According to him, it will more than likely dwarf the Roaring Twenties in terms of prosperity but also precede a time which could dwarf the Great Depression in terms of daily struggle.

Armchair Experts?

We are bombarded with experts in all forms of media predicting interest rates will do this, property prices will do that, etc. You are rightly sceptical as the information is either so vague or obvious to be of any real use at all, or lo and behold, the same person comes along a couple of weeks later saying the exact opposite of their earlier advice. The question you have to ask yourself is: if these people are so expert in their fields, then why are they still working for a living?

The person predicting all these happenings is Harry S Dent Jnr, a Harvard graduate and also a well known author, whose latest book “The Next Great Bubble Boom” documents his view on what will happen over the next two decades and beyond. Now if you want credentials, this man predicted the prosperity and then ultimate crash and depression of the Japanese stock market and economy in the 1980s. Also in 1992 while the rest of the world was still in recession, he published a book describing the boom of the 90s, “the correction” (crash??) in the early 2000s and then relatively quick recovery leading into the period we are in now.

Boom and Inevitable Bust

Of course everyone has their critics but this guy has made some bold specific predictions. It would be very hard to say he meant something else or go back on things if they didn’t eventuate.

How does this relate back to the 1920s? Well according to Dent and many others, we experience major technological breakthroughs approximately every 80 years or every second generation. Usually there is a 20-30 year gap before the technology is accepted in the mass marketplace.

For example, the modern motor car and its related components were invented and available in the 1890s and 1900s but it was in the 1920s when it became an “everybody item”.

Similarly, the microchip. It was invented in the 1970s but it was only from the 1990s that computers, the Internet, mobile/wireless technologies took hold everywhere.

Companies like Ford, Standard Oil and GE rose to prominence in the 1920s and today it is Microsoft, Google and Nokia.

Dent argues that, due to human behaviour, demographics and the revolutionary nature of this change, an inevitable sustained crash and period of depression will occur.

History Repeating

History seems to repeat itself. Humans have short memories. Over a few generations the same pattern seems to occur.

Dent contends the first major crash will happen around 2010 which also coincides with the year the first of the Baby Boomers hit 65 and begin to retire. They will pull large amounts of money out of the world financial markets.

Take heed of the lessons learnt by those who survived the last Great Depression. They will give you valuable insight into what society will be like during desperate times and pay attention to ‘experts’ who practice what they preach and are not just hedging their bets.

Chris Jacob is an adviser to Computer Troubleshooters Bayside

www.ctsbayside.com.au

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